While the world was busy watching the aftermath of the Paris attacks, the IMF just gave its recommendation to place China’s Renminbi in the global Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of funds.
“In an ironic twist, while the IMF has historically delayed the moment of acceptance, it caved just months after China officially devalued its currency for the first time in decades to stimulate its exports, and has unleashed an unprecedented campaign (using overt and covert means) to stabilize the Yuan as capital outflows in the past several months have soared. ”
This puts pressure on the faith in the US dollar and its world reserve currency status and has many international consequences, as well.
Today is the day. Is the beginning of the end nigh for the US dollar?
“In 2009, amid the West’s scramble for signs of recovery, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the Peoples Bank of China, called for a new financial order with a global reserve currency replacing the U.S. dollar. The Financial Times noted, “If, as expected, the imf this month approves the inclusion of China’s renminbi as a reserve currency, it will mark a small step for Mr. Zhou’s 2009 vision but a big move for the renminbi.” ”
“The US Dollar might have reached the top of its strength and could see a downward correction in the next few weeks.”
With the Fed expected to raise interest rates in December, more outflows from the US dollar to the Yuan (renminbi) and some downward pressure on the dollar can be expected in the short term. Long term, the dollar still looks strong, but the renminbi is set to catch up.
It’s official, the yuan will be part of the SDR basket starting Oct. 1, 2016 with a weighting of 10.92%. Could this be a catalyst for portfolio re-allocation? If it is, and if new buyers of yuan stem the outflow of capital from China, the yuan may soar undoing all the devaluations to date and, ironically, hurt the already faultering Chinese economy. Could China’s hard landing turn into a crash?